Is Bearish Stock Market Sentiment Cyclical? (GOOG)

by: Michael Panzner posted on: May 11, 2006 | about stocks: GOOG

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Is there cyclicality to bearish sentiment that is unrelated to what is happening in the news or in the market?

Perhaps, if data derived from the relatively new service from Google is anything to go by.

Essentially, Google Trends offers insights on broad search patterns based on words the world is searching for over some set period of time.

When I plugged in the phrase "stock market crash," the results were rather interesting. It seems that instead of being closely tied to what was being mentioned in the news or what was happening in the market, Google searches for the bearish phrase seemed to ebb and flow in a sort of cyclical pattern.

Very loosely speaking, searches tended to increase during the first quarter, decrease in the second, rise in the third, and decline in the fourth.

While there is not enough data to say this is, in fact, a long-term phenomenon or even a definitive pattern (Google Trends only goes back to 2004), it is worth noting nonetheless. [click image to enlarge]