jcrash

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Microsoft and eBay Team Up: Desperate or Brilliant?

Saved myself over $200 so far.

It really is tempting to buy even more.
Dec 01 22:10 pm |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Tying Interest Rates to CDS Is a Recipe for Main Street Disaster

Good article.
Nov 24 23:31 pm |Rating: +3 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
Can You See Apple Under $60?

On Nov 21 12:35 PM SteveTheHawk wrote:

> Considering the current economic climate, I don't see Apple as being
> undervalued at all. Even with the huge drop in price, it still has
> a PE of 15. I don't see their sales momentum continuing at its current
> pace. What will drive the price up though is the restoration of faith
> in the credit and stock markets. Who knows if/when that will happen?
> I wouldn't buy it at 190 and I wouldn't buy it at 140. The Pollyanna's
> screamed that it would never see $100.00 again. Yeah....right. In
> normal times, I would jump all over Apple stock at the current price.
> These days..... I'm not exactly excited about it. Maybe I'll buy
> some.... maybe I won't.

Stevie, I dont own Apple, or a mac. I do own a bull put spread on them though.

You need to read the financials and the earnings conferences. You see, in this previous quarter, they actually made about $2.50/share. It is purely a trick of accounting that it doesn't show up that way on the statements. Take $2.5 multiple it by 4, stick any P/E you want on that. If you get a stock price less than the current market value less the cash on hand, don't buy. Otherwise, get a brain.

For you folks that think $60 will never be seen, there is easy money to be had selling the put spreads. Sell 40/60 or 45/65 if you like.

I've gone with the easy money at 30/50 myself.
Nov 21 22:20 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Berkshire Hathaway Credit Risk, Index Puts Are Overblown Worries

1. You say worst case his indexes are down 40% since the put sell. You sure? Did he sell Russian/Icelandic/Hong Kong? India? Plenty of indexes are off WAY more than 40%. He may well need a 150-200% market run in the intervening years.

2. No way this was a 1:1 bet. You don't hand over $5 billion in cash if you only need want a 6% return.

3. What currencies are involved? He is not the oracle of currencies.

4. The equities within Berk are down plenty.

Methinks you are overcome by Buffetts recent Narcissistic tendencies.
Nov 21 22:08 pm |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
Buffett's Gamble: $40 Billion Bet on Volatility

BTW, his deal with Goldman and GE wasn't that great. His warrants are well out of the money and his debt is still at risk.

You can get 9% tax free from select MLP's right now. These are companies with no debt that make money from transportation of energy, not the actually price it trades. I'd go with MLP's like WMZ. I bought it today, yielding over 9% tax free. Can't beat that with a stick.
Nov 21 20:36 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Buffett's Gamble: $40 Billion Bet on Volatility

About a month ago? You might want to check your dates on that. I believe he sold those puts many months ago, when the indexes were near their peak.

He needs a 100% return bull market for those puts to not be in the money. Very doable, I agree, but keep in mind the crash in 1932 took some 15 years to return the previous peak.
Nov 21 20:29 pm |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Drop in Gas Price = $300B Savings

My wife is a pharmaceutical Rep. In July, her company doubled the amount they charge the employees for their company cars due to the high cost of gas.

At present, there are no plans to revoke the increase.

So, it ain't all sunshine and roses.
Nov 21 20:22 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Cramer's Mad Money - AIG, Show Me the Money (11/20/08)

Article incorrectly lists WMZ instead of WPZ.
Nov 21 14:28 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Where Have All the Peak Oil Believers Gone?

Hey, tyne, unleaded in Oklahoma is less than half what it was a few months ago. You can fillup for $1.90 a gallon or less.
Nov 01 22:12 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Possible Outcomes of My Apple Purchase

I have an MBA in finance, dude. I know the technical definitions. I also know that if you are short the 20 puts with all your IRA capital and the stock opens at $14 you are now dead...zero capital or negative. You can lose MORE than all your money shorting puts. It is a leveraged play.

You cannot lose more than all your money in covered calls. Period.
Oct 30 09:53 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Possible Outcomes of My Apple Purchase

For the record, what I've been doing with apple is selling bull put spreads out of the money. The implied volatility has led to some very decent gains in short amounts of time with this - while limiting my downside unlike the previous poster.
Oct 29 20:24 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Possible Outcomes of My Apple Purchase

Heh, you can stop out wherever you want?

So, when NVDA was at 19...halted...and opened the next day at 14 or so I could stop out at 17?

I think not. Your naive in thinking the two are equivalent. They aren't. If you put yourself in the realm of infinite capital they are, otherwise they aren't even close.

It is NOT ironic that the IRA would allow you to do covered calls but not naked puts. An IRA cannot be funded at will. You could easily go negative with the scenario I mention above if you are short puts. Then what do you do? That would be a tax nightmare.
Oct 29 20:07 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Where Are Cash-Rich Companies Hoarding Their Money?

$3.8 Billion in foreign securities...hmm is that in Icelandic bonds? or perhaps South Africa? Or Australia....only good choice there is Japan.
Oct 28 16:39 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Think the Dow's Decline Has Been Bad? Check Out the Nikkei

Of course, their currency has appreciated more than ours has, so that helps some.
Oct 26 17:28 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
So Far, Restrained Carnage

I think we can all say that the ppt was a figment of someone's imagination.
Oct 24 12:14 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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