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Another Big Bank Failure: More Likely Than Not to Occur

The Fed is printing too much, Congress is spending too much, and the Treasury is borrowing too much. That is all I need to know to be certain the end will be UGLY!
Dec 31 16:20 pm |Rating: +3 0 |Link to Comment |View article
2009: Expecting a Massive Rally

As earnings surprised continue to arrive to the downside, the indexes must also continue to fall in tandem. John Mauldin, ranked in 2007 and the world's best investment adviser, 2nd only to Warren Buffett, recently suggested in his newsletter that because of new hedge funds liquidations and downward earngins revisions, the S&P 500 will need to drop an additional 32% in early 2009. More pain coming!
Dec 31 16:14 pm |Rating: 0 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
Another Big Bank Failure: More Likely Than Not to Occur

The entire banking system is insolvent, not just a handful of banks. Even the FDIC is insolvent. It simply doesn't have the funds in its trust to cover the deposits it insures. It is inevitable that more big banks will fail, and eventually, we will all wake up to the reality that the government can't cover it all. Who is going to bail out the government? We have seen the enemy, and unfortunately, the enemy is US!
Dec 31 16:08 pm |Rating: +5 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Why Gold Hasn't Been a Hedge Against Inflation

My gold bug buddies are going to want to send you to the guillotine, John!
Dec 21 20:11 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
With 75bp Cut, Fed Becomes the Most Aggressive Central Bank

Despite the CPI today, anyone who has looked at most commodity charts since Dec 1st knows that the CPI was old news. Commodities have started to move higher again, and the steeper the decline of the Dollar, the more pronounced the commodity price increases must be to compensate for the currency devaluation. Just look at the lastest commodity charts (I've posted some today to my blog) and there can be no doubt that the fires of inflation are stoking again!
Dec 16 21:52 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
With 75bp Cut, Fed Becomes the Most Aggressive Central Bank

The carry trade is back on, but this time, instead of the yen, they'll be borrowing the Dollar and shipping the funds everywhere else.
Dec 16 21:44 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Leveraged ETFs Might Be the Cause of Late Day Trading Moves

I've noticed this same phenomenon, and like the large trading desks, I have been taking advantage of the increased volatility at the end of the day. It's a good strategy. However, volatility is a double-edged sword, and if caught on the wrong side of the trade, can be costly. I keep very tight stops at these hours of the day, and I get out very quickly once the momentum fades.
Dec 16 13:28 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
What Wall Street Fraud Means for ETFs

I'm not convinced that I see sufficient correlation between your explanation and the two ETFs you've highlighted. Spain and France? That strikes me as a rather weak correlation!
Dec 16 13:25 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Which ETFs Will Benefit from a Rate Cut?

Good choices. Also, since 70% of the US Dollar Index is related to the Euro, and the ECB has now signalled that their easing cycle is near an end, the Euro is once again rising firmly against the Dollar.
I am concern that US treasuries have risen too far and are now in bubble territory. I am prepared to short treasuries when the time and my indicators tell me the time is right.
Dec 16 13:22 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Hedging Bets by Going Long and Short

I have been using the LSC ETF. I like it because it can take both long and short positions in a single fund. It has continued to rise steadily even during the commodity bloodbath.
If it has one weakness, it is that it only rebalances once a month. I check my charts every day!
Dec 16 13:19 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Second Carbon Exchange-Traded Product Makes It to Market

Thanks for the info. SInce the fund uses EU futures contracts collateralized by US government bonds, it is genuinely different from GRN. It already -- in 2 days of trading -- has better volume than GRN.
Dec 16 13:12 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Find Investment Opportunities Using the Austrian Business Cycle Theory

If the currency is devalued, then gold and other physical assets would be primary beneficiaries. All hard assets would benefit. That would include -- hard to believe right now -- real also, perhaps. However, with credit difficult to come by, real estate would require monstrous amounts of cash, so remain in a deflationary cycle. Excessive credit makes high ticket assets easier to acquire, but also tends to exacerbate the inflationary aspect of that to-easy credit. I'm banking on commodities -- again -- sometime next year. Perhaps we have begun to see the resurgence of some commodities in the last few days. Corn, soybeans, wheat, and other food commodities skyrocketed today, for example. Gold has also held up remarkably well over the past few months.
Dec 12 17:05 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Economic Forecast and Best ETF Picks for 2009

I am purely a technical trader, but I like to read what you say. I trade purely what the charts tell me. They charts never lie. Fundamentals may not lie, but the often mislead, and there is always someone with more data, more timely data, or different data that points in another direction. I am also an Austrian School economist, so I enjoy the perspective you share. Thanks for your thoughts!
Dec 12 16:53 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Despite Empty Silos and Hunger, Short Commodity ETFs

The past few days have proven the false prophetic nature of this article. Corn skyrocketed today, along with several of the the other grain commodities.

The statement that food commodity prices remain relative high is simply not true. Last week, I pulled long-term charts for corn, soybeans, wheat, and rice. Until this rally of the past few days, all of these grains were at price levels that were the lowest since the year 2000. Grains are grossly oversold and due for a correction HIGHER, not lower. The price action of the past week is proof of that.
Dec 12 16:45 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
FDIC Graphs Show the Extent of the Financial Crisis

Well written article. Nice charts and graphics!

Eventually, the FDIC will run out of funds, even if Congress seeks to recapitalize it. Then, a run on the banks is inevitable. Maybe our grandparents were right -- that the safest place for our money is under the matress!
Nov 26 13:59 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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Wall Street Breakfast - Sample Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News by SA Editor Rachael Granby Bank trio becomes duo. Wells Fargo (WFC) will become the largest U.S. bank by branches with its bid for Wachovia (WB), after Citigroup (C) withdrew from compromise negotiations late yesterday on concerns about the quality of some of Wachovia's assets. Wells Fargo, with a bid valued at $11.4B, expects the purchase to be completed by the end of the year, and denies it will have to absorb assets shakier than originally thought. Government considers next steps. As the financial crisis continues to worsen, the U.S. government is considering two dramatic steps to turn around, or at least slow, the damage: guaranteeing billions of dollars in bank debt and temporarily insuring all U.S. bank deposits. The moves, which would mark the government's most extensive intervention to date, are in discussion stages only. Credit stays frozen. As frozen credit markets refuse to thaw, the cost of default protection on corporate bonds reaches new global records amid investor concerns the credit crisis will trigger corporate failures as companies struggle to finance their businesses. Interbank lending remains limited, and borrowing from the Fed's expanded discount window continued its trend of setting new highs every week, as the total daily average rose to $420.2B vs. $367.8B last week. Oil demand withers. The International Energy Agency warned Friday worldwide oil demand... Email continues...
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Investing Ideas - Sample Seeking Alpha - Investing Ideas Cramer's Picks Farewell Financial Bear Raids - Cramer's Mad Money (10/14/08) by SA Editor Joan Wickham Better Picks - Cramer's Lightning Round (10/14/08) by SA Editor Joan Wickham Perhaps Industrials... Cramer's Stop Trading! (10/14/08) by SA Editor Joan Wickham Long Ideas Utilities Beginning to Generate Interest for Longs by Joe Kunkle The Long Case for Encore Capital by Value Investor Insight 2009: The Year of the Channel for SaaS Vendors? by Jeff Kaplan Two Global Infrastructure Investment Opportunities in ETFs by Investment U Market Behaves Sanely - Fast Money Recap (10/14/08) by SA Editor Joan Wickham Short Ideas Why Short Sellers Are the Heroes of Wall Street by Investment U Salesforce.com: Pricey and Coming Down Fast by Charlie Bottle Google: 3Q Results Reveal Chinks in the Armor by Mark Krieger Email continues...
Jim Cramer's Picks -
Sample

Better Choices - Cramer's Lightning Round (10/15/08)

by SA Editor Rachael Granby

Stocks discussed in the lightning round session of Jim Cramers Mad Money TV program,
Wednesday, October 15.

Bullish Calls:

Continental Resources (CLR) -- "This is a remarkable decline. All of the high quality ones are down so much, I can't go against it. This is where you pull the trigger.
3M (MMM) -- The moment this stock starts yielding 5%, I'm a buyer. Until then, keep your powder dry.

Bearish Calls:

Computer Sciences (CSC) -- This is a company that was going to be bought, but they passed up the chance. Now I don't want to buy it."
Annaly Mortgage (NLY) -- I think this is a business model that needs to borrow money. Definitively do not buy."
Northrop Grumman (NOC) -- You can't own the defense stocks right now. If I had to own one, I'd look at Lockheed Martin (LMT) with its good dividend.
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Global Markets - Sample Seeking Alpha - Global Markets China An Outcry from Emerging and Developed Markets Alike by Jonathan O'Shaughnessy USANA Health Sciences Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript Perfect World Announces Share Repurchase Program by Trader Mark China: Hot Money Inflows Down, Nervousness Up by Michael Pettis India Indian Economy Has Much to Cheer About by Equitymaster India: RBI Cuts Cash Reserve Ratio by Equitymaster India: Markets Continue Downward by Equitymaster Japan Sanyo Enters Thin-Film Market, Goes Up Against Sharp by Greentech Media Asia Four International Dividend Stocks to Watch by David Hunkar Eastern Europe Reality Bites As Stocks Continue To Collapse by The Mole Email continues...
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